The Daily Overdose of Logic for Tuesday, 18 October 2011: Gilad Shalit Goes Home

Ed.: We're going to try something new--a daily feature (maybe with weekends off) in which I'll write mid-length commentary on one item of particular interest, plus quick hitters (a link to the story, plus a few sentences of opinion) on each of several others. If you prefer my long-form, standalone screeds, don't worry, they'll still appear as circumstances warrant. My hope is that this will help keep me in the habit of writing here on a regular basis, and that it will keep my readers interested.

Let's get one thing straight right now: Gilad Shalit's capture and detention involved multiple gross violations of international law. Israel, its Western allies, and the United Nations were right to issue strident demands for his release. Those parties' celebration today is, at least partially, deserved.

But let's get another thing straight: Shalit's release does not mean a corner has been turned in the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, nor does it wipe away the various problems that delayed it for so long, nor is it even an unequivocally good thing.

Shalit was released in exchange for the release of 1,027 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. In evaluating this deal, there are two equally unsettling possibilities:

1. Israel got the better end of the deal, or it was a fair swap.
2. Hamas got the better end of the deal.

If the former, the freedom of one IDF soldier is, ipso facto, legally, morally, and politically equivalent to the freedom of a small town of Palestinians--many of whom were almost certainly denied due process and are truly guilty of little or nothing. If the latter, Israel has allowed some extraordinarily high-risk people (and let's not kid ourselves--there were quite a few highly unsavory elements, of a terroristic bent and with blood on their hands, in those 1,027) to go free while getting in return only the innocent victim of an illegal cross-border incursion by Hamas.

The truth, however, is that there is a third possibility, unspoken but, after a moment's thought, rather obvious--Israel thinks it got Door #1, while Hamas thinks it got Door #2. But this is the worst of all possible worlds. The Netanyahu government, practicing, as it is wont to practice, the cold calculus of human life, can now proceed under the assumption that one Israeli soldier is worth 1,027 (or more) Palestinian civilians. (It has been doing this for some time, obviously, but now there's a real-world event on which it can rely as "evidence.") Hamas, meanwhile, thinking it has just gained more than it has lost--not an unreasonable assessment, in my opinion--is suddenly incentivized to commit illegal and violent acts to force Israel's hand. (Again, it's not like this wasn't the case before, and we shouldn't pretend for a moment that the Israeli government has a long-standing policy of saintlike adherence to international law or even basic human understanding, but that doesn't mean we should go around providing a terrorist group--which Hamas certainly is--with yet more of a basis, however tenuous, for its actions.)

Worst of all, though, if I am correct in my presumption that Israel and Hamas have arrived at a rather fortuitous result despite working at cross-purposes and under different assumptions, this means that, ideologically speaking, nothing whatsoever about the relationship between the parties has changed. Israel still holds out the lives of its citizens as worth intrinsically more than Palestinian lives, and will continue to act and negotiate on those terms. Hamas will continue to view the State of Israel as illegitimate and have no particular compunction about waging guerrilla warfare as a type of leverage.

And the beat goes forever on.

In other insufficiently logical news:

America: Don't you dare give us your poor, your tired, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free. I mean, you can if you want, but we'll probably just deport their sorry asses.

Business: Apple stock was down more than 5% Tuesday when it reported that its Q3 iPhone sales missed projections by nearly 15%. Between this and losing their founder and Genius-in-Chief in just the last few weeks, I feel really bad for both Apple's fans and the company its--HAHAHAHA FUCK THAT NOISE. They're all getting exactly what they deserve, as are Los Quesos Grandes at Goldman Sachs, which reported a $428 million Q3 loss. (N.B.: I hate rent-seeking way more than I hate investment banking, hence my sympathy, on this one point, with the #OccupyWallStreet buffoons. But I hate Apple even more than that.)

Science and the law: GlaxoSmithKline, with substantial support from the Gates Foundation, has spent the last 25 years trying to develop a malaria vaccine. In its first trial, it protected nearly half of the sub-Saharan African children to which it was administered. There are some things against which even I can't complain. (Except, perhaps, for the fact that the vaccine was originally developed not for the world's most disadvantaged children but for the American military. Oh, and given the recent state of things, an EU court could always just up and decide that GSK isn't allowed to profit off it.)

World: Speaking of the EU: it is not happy with Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych after former Prime Minister (and now opposition leader) Yulia Tymoshenko was sentenced to seven years in prison after a trial of questionable legitimacy last week. Neither, I would suspect, are the proprietors of Hottest Heads of State, but for entirely different reasons.

Technology: Research in Motion, the maker of extremely effective paperweights BlackBerries, unveiled new software for its phones and tablets today. And not a single fuck was given. (Except by law firms, which for some reason cling to their BlackBerries like Jack Dawson to that fucking piece of wall even though all of their functionality, and more, can now be quite easily had on iPhones and Android devices--and, you know, iPhones and Droids don't experience continent-wide, days-long service disruptions.)

Colorado: Medical marijuana dispensaries in This the Finest of All States are joining the United Food and Commercial Workers Union. The parallels between the pot and coffee industries (ha! get it?) in This the Finest of All States are getting a bit creepy; we're all well aware that there are just about as many dispensaries in Denver as Starbucks locations, and now, thanks to this unionization, the tokers among us will shortly be overpaying for a shitty product just like we caffeine fiends.

The national pastime: What, you think I'm going to talk about the World Series here? When I could instead be focusing on a divorce settlement between two entitled assholes that allows one of them to maintain ownership of a dysfunctional third-place team (for now--there's a long way to go yet)? Perish the thought!

Anti-depressant: As regards the current economic clusterfuck, more Americans are inclined to blame the federal government than Wall Street, and the greatest part of them are neutral on Occupy Wall Street. The country is not yet lost.

Yes, I hope to put this up in the mornings from now on.